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Independent player guide

Choose Luck or Status Chance for the actual goal

Choose Luck when the problem is reward/offering quality; choose Status Chance when you already have a status source and need more of its hits to apply that status. Status Damage is another stat: it strengthens damaging statuses rather than making a Sleep or Burn counter advance by itself.[1]

Checked October 28, 2026 · Beta v0.8.62 · By Megabonk.org · Source-based guide

Pick the stat that can change your result

Original-game scope: pokebonk.com v0.8.62, checked October 28. Our Play window uses a separate third-party v0.8.27 edition and separate progress. Recommendations here are source-based decisions; no original-game full clear, catch, reward claim or co-op completion was tested.

GoalRelevant checkWhy the other stat is not a substitute
Better eligible rarity offersLuck, your level/stage, and the actual offer pool.Status Chance does not change the rarity roller.
More Sleep/Burn applicationsA source that applies that status, its base chance and Status Chance multiplier.Luck alone does not add Sleep to a move.
More burn/poison damageStatus Damage and the underlying hit/effect.Higher damage is not automatically more distinct affected enemies.
Survive the next crowded sectionYour immediate recovery, mitigation and attack coverage.A long-term offer advantage may not solve the current incoming damage.

These are editorial choices based on the checked systems, not a claim that one stat has the best win rate.

Luck: compare normalized probabilities

The original rarity roller uses several weights, normalizes them by their sum, and also reads level and stage. A larger Legendary weight is not the same percentage-point increase in final Legendary probability. The glossary’s rough “doubling” description is not a universal normalized probability formula.

The derived table holds player level at 20 and stage at 1, assumes nonnegative Luck, and uses the unrestricted ordinary rarity roll: no minimum-rarity or allowed-rarity mask. It describes that roll only, not an item drop rate, catch rate, guaranteed card or every reward source.

[1]
LuckCommonUncommonRareEpicLegendary
070.03%24.01%5.00%0.90%0.06%
5050.97%32.76%12.29%3.32%0.66%
10034.96%35.96%19.98%7.19%1.92%

Method: a = Luck/100; effective score = level + Luck/8 + 12 × (stage−1). Weights are 70/(1+a), 24×(1+0.5a), 5×(1+a)²×ramp(3,10), 0.9×(1+a)³×ramp(8,18), and 0.12×(1+a)⁴×ramp(14,26). Each ramp clamps (score−low)/(high−low) to 0–1. Divide each weight by the sum. Rounded rows can differ from exactly 100% by 0.01.

Status Chance multiplies a source; it does not create one

The move display uses a base status chance, move-upgrade factor and player Status Chance multiplier, capped at 100% for that hit. If a move has no status, that display does not gain one merely because the player multiplier rises.[1]

Illustrative sourceAt ×1.0 Status ChanceAt ×1.5Interpretation
A status move with 10% base chance and no status-specific upgrade10%15%+50% multiplier means 10% × 1.5, not 10% + 50 points.
One Awakening stack in the inspected on-hit item handler2.5% Sleep3.75% SleepA source is present; still not a guaranteed Sleep on every hit.
One Flame Orb stack in that handler5% Burn7.5% BurnFire damage and Burn application remain separate.
A move with no applicable status sourceNo new status supplied by this statStill no source suppliedAdd or inspect a real source before spending to amplify it.

Examples isolate one handler and omit other conditional effects. They are arithmetic from the checked source, not measured application rates or a complete multi-source stacking model.

When the challenge bar barely changes

  1. Read whether the requirement is a cumulative total or a best single-run counter.
  2. Check that a selected move/item actually applies the required status.
  3. Compare the counter for distinct affected enemies, not total hits, damage or repeat applications to one enemy.
  4. Keep mode, target and status source fixed while testing one change.

The existing unlock reference gives actual Sleep/Burn targets and mode restrictions; do not replace those gates with an upgrade assumption.[1][2]

Sources & verification

  1. pokebonk.com — original combat and menu client ↗ (external website, opens in a new tab) — v0.8.62 / mvr5gbc0, inspected October 28, 2026. SINGLE_SOURCE; code and menu inspection, not a completed run or device benchmark.
  2. pokebonk.com — original League and mode definitions ↗ (external website, opens in a new tab) — Same build; gates, kit definitions and mode constants, inspected October 28. This is the same project, not a second independent gameplay test.
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